Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson hope to celebrate when the Vikings host the Kansas City Chiefs in … [+] Week 5. (John Autey / MediaNews Group / St. Paul Pioneer Press via Getty Images)
MediaNews Group via Getty ImagesIt is time to look at the Minnesota Vikings season realistically. After 4 weeks, the Vikings have a disappointing 1-3 record, and their only victory was a come-from-behind effort against a rookie quarterback in Bryce Young and the winless Carolina Panthers.
Nevertheless, the Vikings are a talented team that includes the best receiver in the league in Justin Jefferson, an outstanding tight end in T.J. Hockenson and two dangerous supporting receivers in K.J. Osborn and rookie speedster Jordan Addison. They also have a quarterback in Kirk Cousins who is unfailingly accurate when he has adequate time but can also break hearts when he fails under pressure.
The running game has fallen quite a bit without Dalvin Cook and the defense remains a major struggle. The Vikings rank 20th in yards allowed per game, and that is an improvement over last year’s position as the 31st-ranked defense.
However, it pales in comparison to the improvement shown by the Detroit Lions. Detroit ranked 32nd – dead last – in that category a year ago, but the Lions have improved to the point where they rank 4th in yards allowed this season.
That was the kind of improvement the Vikings were looking for when they hired Brian Flores as their defensive coordinator. The problem is not with the schemes employed by Flores. The problem is that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has not given Flores a significant upgrade in personnel to impact such an upgrade.
Harrison Smith of the Vikings was a one-man demolition squad against the Panthers in Week 4. (Photo … [+] by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
Getty Images The Vikings got a big lift as veteran safety Harrison Smith had an All-Pro level game against the Panthers with 14 tackles, 3.0 sacks and a forced fumble that D.J. Wonnum picked up and returned for the go-ahead touchdown. The Vikings also got a small lift from newcomer Marcus Davenport, who added 4 tackles and a sack.
But it would be wrong to make too much of that victory because the schedule is challenging over the next four weeks.
The Vikings host the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs Sunday and the undefeated San Francisco 49ers two weeks later. They travel to Chicago to face the Bears in between and go to Green Bay the week after the 49ers game. At that point, the Vikings will have a truthful idea of where they stand for the season.
It seems likely that they will lose 3 of those 4 games, but perhaps it will be just the opposite. If that happens, they should be in a position to make a run at a Wild Card playoff spot, or perhaps the NFC North title if the Lions revert to the form they have had for decades. That seems unlikely at this point as head coach Dan Campbell has this team performing at a superior level.
Confidence will be high if they can win any combination of games that gives them 3 wins in 4 games, with the most likely coming against the Chiefs, Bears and Packers.
Kansas City simply is not playing at the same level that it has in past years, having fallen to the Lions and barely beating the Jets. If Cousins can get some time, he should be able to find Jefferson, Hockenson and Addison and come up with a legitimate chance to beat the Chiefs.
But if the Vikings fall short and lose either 2 or 3 games, that is likely to leave them staring at a non-playoff year.
And that leaves them with a dilemma of what to do with Cousins. He is not under contract for the 2024 season and there are teams that will desperately need a winning quarterback. A profitable trade scenario will exist for Adofo-Mensah at that point.
The trade deadline is October 31, two days after the Packers game, and that will allow the Vikings to take the lead role.
There is no reason to give up on the season now, but a poor showing over the next four weeks will give this team a chance to lay the groundwork for the future – with an eye towards gaining a generational quarterback.
That leader could be Caleb Williams, who reportedly listed the Vikings as one of five teams that he would play for next year. The other teams that he would line up for are the Raiders, Giants, 49ers and Cowboys. Otherwise, the defending Heisman Trophy winner would be inclined to stay at USC because he reportedly can make millions in NIL money, and he supposedly does not wany to play for any of the other 27 teams.
Still, the Vikings would have to manipulate the draft so they could select Williams, and that is a skill that Adofo-Mensah has not demonstraed he could handle.
But at least they would have a fighting chance for the future. Their opportunity for the current season will be determined over the next four weeks.